Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
